Currently, hurricane Sandy, with winds around 80 mph, is going north across the east coast and affecting parts of Georgia and Florida with tropical storm force conditions. Over the next couple days the centre of the storm will stay over the ocean prior to making a sharp curve to the west and finally make landfall on the New Jersey shore. For a storm to create a curve such as this is nearly unprecedented in known meteorological history. Maybe not only is the projected course highly unusual but the forecast pressure of the storm is certainly going to be extremely low. There are several estimates that the storm could go as little as or less than 950mb.
As a class 2 when Sandy hit Cuba, it killed almost two dozen individuals over the area and did some major damage to areas of the Island. There have been buildings destroyed that had stood for more than 200 years.
The next few days
The current weather today and Saturday seems quite pleasant with sunshine and only a couple of clouds. Afternoon temperatures will increase well in to the 60s. On Sunday heavens will turn cloudy and rain and drizzle will start late, the majority of the day will be dry. It will still be light Sunday and there will be some humidity in the air particularly south of Boston.
Sandy, a hurricane in those days is going to be experiencing a change in the internal make-up of the storm. A hurricane is really a system so that as such has a tight wind field. Later this weekend, a very powerful jet stream along with a a cold front will move over Sandy and change the storm from the tropical one to an extratropical system. As this occurs, the wind field will greatly enlarge to cover hundreds of miles. Normally, a hurricane’s greatest impact is 20-50 miles from the centre. As a change is undergone by Sandy from the warm to a cold core storm her impact will enlarge. The wind field of winds over 40mph might ultimately reach out over 250 miles. Even though the storm is now forecast to hit south of New England, areas from the north shore through Connecticut will feel and see the effects of the storm. Trails can alter, but with each passing outlook, the likelihood of major damage here reduce significantly.
The European and American models in addition to the hurricane models have come in to better understanding in regards to the track of Sandy. The storm is taken by them in to the region round the New Jersey coastline. This could still shift but meteorologists have become more assured in the course. On the weekend the course will end up better still refined. At this time, the models are predicting 5-10″ of rain out of this storm. Some heavy rain could transfer to our region but the heaviest should stay south.
So what can you anticipate from Hurricane Sandy?
Tuesday and Monday night is going to be stormy but if a bad storm is held not by the projected track. I might say expect this to feel just like a powerful nor’easter with no snow. The trees will turn a great deal and some might fall particularly the nearer to the storm’s landfall you might be found. Coastal areas are likely to see beach erosion and some residences could end up damaged considerably, again nearer to the machine. Rainfall is going to be heavy in the region of 2-5″ and that is sufficient to cause urban street and basement flooding. I still believe the power could go out for a lot of people and before some areas see their power turned straight back on it could be days. Tides are high around midnight and midday both Tuesday and Monday. The tides will also be astronomically high particularly the tides at midday.
Remember, someone reading this in Fitchburg will feel less of the storm than someone reading this on Martha’s Vineyard. There will be major power and damage will be lost for a lot of days in the event that you have been in the direct route of the storm.
Could this miss New Jersey?
The storm won’t be missed by us, but the impact of the storm might be quite minimal, think big rainstorm. A southern Nj landfall would give a moderate storm to us. If the storm hit Maryland or Virginia the impact could be even less serious in southern New England. If the storm’s landfall shifted southern Connecticut, would we see important damage to a lot of the shore and widespread tree damage. The tendency the past few model runs has been to help keep the storm in the mid-Atlantic area, great news for all of us, terrible news south. You can observe on the map below showing all of the models predictions how they truly are converging on one remedy south of New York. Having said that, those of you on Nantucket and the Winery are have the best possibility of damage.
What you should be doing…
Those of you with boats and dwellings on the shore should prepare as you would for an extremely powerful nor’easter. For the others of us take into account the chance power is lost by you. Power was lost by many of us this past year in the October snowstorm and Irene. Recall what you wish you had done and what you did then. Usually do not fill up on items that go bad in the event that you lose power for 2 days or even more. Longer power outages are not as likely now. When this is done and all said, I believe that dispersed power outages is going to be some small tree damage in addition to the primary affect to region. Heavy rain might be a problem as well. One other good news is that most of the trees got taken down this past year in those two important weather events. The better news for New England, the storm is forecast to hit south of here.